It was last minute, and he invited himself, but Uncle Arthur has decided to visit LBI for the Fourth of July. While his visit will be brief, he is, sadly, quite a downer. He loves to lock children indoors, to sweep everybody off the beach, to drown the weak in the ocean, and worst of all, he hates fireworks.
A weak little system in the Southern U.S. has show amazing fortitude, determination, and a penchant for organization, and now has a shot at becoming a full-blown Tropical Cyclone and, if its dreams come true, a Hurricane. Fortunately for LBI, if Arthur forms into a Hurricane by Thursday, it will be near the Carolinas where it will surley get its wings clipped by Cape Hatteras. Cape Hatteras is a like a large pin put there to pop the bubble and deflate the ego of any Hurricane that thinks it can lollygag up the entire Coast. In the case of Hurricane Irene, that’s exactly what happened. In the case of Sandy, the most worrisome thing was that she manage to stay well off shore as she passed Cape Hatteras, avoiding the wing clip-age and therefore continuing to gain strength.
Interestingly, Hurricane Arthur won’t have much of an effect on the overall weather picture on LBI, save for utterly decimating all fun on the Fourth of July with rain. As he arrives we will continue with classic South/Southwest/Southeast wind patterns with the accompanying heat and humidity and the ever present threat of boom-booms. As he leaves, we’ll have a weekend of strong reversal with rippin’ North/West winds. West Wind is the preferred Wind of Readings From The Northside, and Saturday and Sunday should be ultra crisp days with a good chance of great wildlife action on the beach. Then next week its right back to Southwest with chronic chance of boom-booms.
The one true gift a Tropical Cyclone can deliver in Summer is some swell and some nice waves. The peak will be Friday evening… there is a small chance of some 5-6 foot break that evening but we should expect a big mess-of-a-sea and a lack of good form. Saturday morning could be memorable though; more modest swell for sure, but some offshore gust might clean things up a little. If things come together nicely we could see some of the first decent waves of the Summer this weekend, though the forecast reads like a series of bad missed connections.
Wildlife activity on the beach should be interesting this weekend. As long as the winds remain reasonable, we should see epic Osprey hunting on the beach as they ride the West winds, take advantage of the cleaned-up seas, make up for lost time, and try to score as many fish as possible for their rapidly-growing and always hungry babies back at the nests. Both Saturday & Sunday afternoon, around 3 PM, should be fantastic of Osprey shows on the beaches.
Dolphin action might also turn up a notch. Watch for large Dolphin pods heading North as the storm approaches, and South in its wake. If the storm manages to move the Dolphin around, Saturday & Sunday West winds will be a great time to watch for them.
Closing with a hopeful thought: While rain is all but guaranteed Friday, there is only a small window around 9PM that really matters for Fireworks. We’ll just have to wait and see what the hourlies show as the day gets closer.